In the 2021 outlook, we said that the year ahead “will be a wilder ride than 2020…” Well, it has not disappointed thus far! The market is clearly speculative in nature, but investors need to get comfortable with the speculative nature of global financial markets. In this note, we update a few indicators and touch … More Bitcoin Bulletin: healthy trading despite speculative phase
In January 2020 an internet chat group took down a Wall Street hedge and got one back for the little guy in a classic Robinhood story – or so you’re led to believe… While there’s a tinge of truth here, a reverse Robinhood story is on-going and unsound money is at the centre. [Reading time: … More SMM: (ed. 7) When will this Game of reverse Robinhood Stop?
So, you’re on the path to appreciating that Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that could alter the global economy. You agree that it has incredible upside price potential, but how much should you allocate? I’ve suggested before that a 1% of your investment portfolio allocation to bitcoin is a no-brainer because this makes almost no … More How much should I allocate to bitcoin?
2020 Sound Money Recap In 2020 we established that “sound money is the challenge and opportunity of our lifetime.” Central banks have pursued aggressively loose monetary policies since the 1970s, trying to solve every problem, social, economic, political or financial, with lower interest rates and debt. They’ve ignored the consequences like deteriorating economic growth, falling … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 6) Invest capital into a sound future
2020 has been an unbelievable year. Apart from cementing the importance of relationships and community, bitcoin is the most positive component of a challenging year. 300%+ investment returns are spectacular, but bitcoin is far more important than price appreciation. In this note, I touch on numerous positive aspects of bitcoin, including protecting value in the … More 2021 bitcoin outlook: Hold onto your hats!
Whilst bitcoin demand is variable, bitcoin supply is perfectly known and pre-determined. There will only be 21 million. The architectural design is very unlikely to change. It’s incredible how known supply meets variable demand and results in adoption waves, which centre around the halving*. In this article I detail these waves and explain the psychological … More Adoption Waves: FOMO remains Bitcoin’s #1 Marketing Strategy
Bitcoin’s detractors often refer to it as a speculative asset. This is partially true – an investment in bitcoin involves a speculation on an inherently uncertain future. But the connotation implied by ‘speculation’ is often unhelpful because it associates bitcoin with fly-by-nights who are merely trying to make a quick buck. In this article I … More Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world
Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021
“Do you believe bitcoin?” “Do you believe in gold?” This line of questioning makes it sound like there is something mystical or religious about these store of value assets. Yes, people talk about gold and bitcoin with religious fervor, but gold is precious for a reason and the same logic is applicable to bitcoin. The … More Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has given several wonderful interviews since allocating his $0.5bn Treasury balance sheet to bitcoin this year. Strong, concise and visual communication is a powerful combination. His background as a technology investor with experience of buying digital assets, combined with his concentrated power as CEO, positioned him to make the bold decision … More Tech network disruption framework; bitcoin undervalued at $20K