There is immense value in the broader crypto ecosystem of decentralised financial technologies but the bright shiny lights of the fastest appreciating token also pose a risk. Desire to beat the market can distract us. Bitcoin remains the most important asset in the ecosystem because of its resilience to external attack. Bitcoin is a reserve … More SM (ed. 15) Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto
In the past we used to write more detailed and opinionated pieces on market conditions. We are veering away from that to a short and succinct monthly market comment. We’ll keep opinions more thematic in nature and release those separately. What has happened in the month of August? After reaching a low of $29,800 in … More SM Market Review (Aug 2021) 25% undervalued, substantial upside price risks
Traditional investors are confounded by the yields available in crypto. We earn next to nothing on traditional dollars but earn 5%+ on crypto dollars. I can imagine traditional investors look in from the outside and think “this is too good to be true!”, “Those bright shiny lights in the distance are going to blow up … More SM (ed. 14) Crypto yields are sucking in trad-fi
Stablecoins are an important and revealing innovation. With deep liquidity, lightning-fast settlement, and dramatic user growth these crypto USDs pose important questions for regulators and traditional financial markets. TLDR: Stablecoins present both challenges and opportunities to regulators, the financial system, and investors. The unfolding regulation of these instruments provides insights for the clash between centralized … More SM (ed. 13): Stablecoins - bitcoin’s Pandora’s box
The South African government is attempting to apply capital control regulations to the crypto industry. These regulations are an apartheid government relic and are difficult to apply to crypto. Bitcoin’s decentralized, permissionless and censorship resistant technology will find ways to circumvent regressive regulations. If government undertakes the large administrative burden required to execute these policies … More SMM: (ed.12) Illegitimate government policies raise self-custody imperative
I wrote in this article that the bull-market is not over, but what if I am wrong? What would this look like and what can we learn from it as we navigate the coming weeks and months? TLDR: There is strong price support at $20K and I see an absolute price fall at $10K. I … More Bitcoin Update: Lower the price, bigger the sale
Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto ecosystem experienced a hair-raising correction in the past week but I expect the bull-market to continue deeper into 2021. The market structure might be changing slightly as institutions play an important role so we have to wise up to the risks they introduce. But we cannot be fearful … More Bitcoin update: The bull-market is not over
Today, bitcoin is idiosyncratic to traditional financial markets. Unlike bonds, equity and property, bitcoin’s returns are uncorrelated with economic growth, inflation, or risk premia. Bitcoin is related to these variables insofar as unsound money makes sound money more attractive, but no observable correlation exists. As a result, it can be tricky to position bitcoin in … More SMM: (ed.9) When bitcoin is fundamental & legacy markets are idiosyncratic
A short personal reflection on leverage. TLDR: I’ve grappled with the hypocrisy of a sound money activist utilising debt and decided to leverage my ideas through bitcoin [6 minute read] I am not a fan of debt. Why? Because unsound money, low interest rates and easy debt have numerous negative consequences on society, including inequality, … More Leveraging Good Ideas
Ray Dalio has a point, while BTC has a limited supply, there is no limit to crypto assets (alt coins) supply. I can create RobCoin on the internet right now, if I want. Concerned investors may ask themselves questions like, “what does the infinite supply of crypto assets mean for bitcoin?” or “Will another crypto … More There is only one digital sound money
Sound Money 