SM (Ed.20) Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech

Wow, what a month! We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system. As people try to make heads or tails of the destruction in the Ukraine potentially seismic shifts are underway financially. The … More SM (Ed.20) Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech

SM Market Review (Jan 2022): Institutional demand at lower prices in choppy conditions

There are a lot of conflicting signals in the markets at the start of February 2022. The central banking monetary experiment is a long-term catalyst for bitcoin, but the Fed is reversing the trajectory temporarily this year. Macro conditions are responding (before the Fed has done much) which reveals both systemic fragility and a seasonal … More SM Market Review (Jan 2022): Institutional demand at lower prices in choppy conditions

SM Market Review (Nov 2021): Macro headwinds build

The traditional macro world took some steam out of bitcoin in November. Crypto investors may have shifted capital away from trad-fi, but trad-fi liquidity flows will remain critical in the months ahead. A stronger USD and flatter yield curve tell a cautionary tail as we edge deeper into the bitcoin bull-market. TLDR: Bitcoin fundamentals remain … More SM Market Review (Nov 2021): Macro headwinds build

SM (ed.17): Co-opted by Wall Street – Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk?

I am often accused on being a bitcoin evangelist with nothing negative to say about bitcoin. Well, here is a risk that most people do not think about… Being co-opted by Wall St. Bitcoin’s potential is immense – an independent global reserve asset, the foundation of a more ethical financial system, uncorrupted by centralized financial … More SM (ed.17): Co-opted by Wall Street – Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk?

SM Market Review (Oct 2021): Leveraged speculators creep in after strong rally

We experienced a major 40% rally in bitcoin in October, driven by valuation, but triggered by SEC ETF approval. Valuation is less attractive than a month ago, but still very constructive heading into November so large price increases are the base case. However an increasing number of leveraged speculative implies the market will likely get … More SM Market Review (Oct 2021): Leveraged speculators creep in after strong rally

SM Market Review (Sept 2021) Reflection, support and maintenance of fundamental value

Headline crypto markets were flat over the past month, which took me somewhat by surprise so in this months market comment I conduct a brief reflection. TLDR: Derivative markets, Evergrande fears and some regulatory fears put crypto on the back-burner. While I am reflective, I am unconcerned. Fundamentals are strong, bitcoin is deeply undervalued and … More SM Market Review (Sept 2021) Reflection, support and maintenance of fundamental value

SM (ed. 15) Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto

There is immense value in the broader crypto ecosystem of decentralised financial technologies but the bright shiny lights of the fastest appreciating token also pose a risk. Desire to beat the market can distract us. Bitcoin remains the most important asset in the ecosystem because of its resilience to external attack. Bitcoin is a reserve … More SM (ed. 15) Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto

SM Market Review (Aug 2021) 25% undervalued, substantial upside price risks

In the past we used to write more detailed and opinionated pieces on market conditions. We are veering away from that to a short and succinct monthly market comment. We’ll keep opinions more thematic in nature and release those separately. What has happened in the month of August? After reaching a low of $29,800 in … More SM Market Review (Aug 2021) 25% undervalued, substantial upside price risks