A short book review from an investing classic. I enjoyed the turn of the century historical context, the booms and busts of the time and the different character of the investment management industry. For example, when Livermore was on holiday in Palm Beach Florida, he had to go into the physical trading houses to see … More Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre
NFTs have taken the world by storm in the past 18 months, potentially unleashing a social movement in digital identity and community. As a macro specialist, non-fungible tokens (similar to collectibles) do not get me particularly excited because they don’t suit my analysis framework. I like to look at monetary, social and economic trends and … More NFTs: Pioneering digital identity or leading us astray?
Wow, what a month! We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system. As people try to make heads or tails of the destruction in the Ukraine potentially seismic shifts are underway financially. The … More SM (Ed.20) Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech
In 2021 El Salvador became the first nation to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, a monumental occasion on bitcoin’s monetization path. Despite this encouraging development, I do not think we are going to see many major nations following in its footsteps just yet. Small, dollarized countries will be tempted. But for the vast majority of … More SM (ed.19): Rogue State Demand?
There are a lot of conflicting signals in the markets at the start of February 2022. The central banking monetary experiment is a long-term catalyst for bitcoin, but the Fed is reversing the trajectory temporarily this year. Macro conditions are responding (before the Fed has done much) which reveals both systemic fragility and a seasonal … More SM Market Review (Jan 2022): Institutional demand at lower prices in choppy conditions
2021, what a year! There is lots to be grateful for, in life, work and markets. Lots of lessons learnt too. In the past week I took some time to reflect on last years predictions, digest the learnings and contextualize where we are ahead of what will likely be another whirlwind year. Forecasts can be … More SM (ed. 18) Annual Review and Outlook
The traditional macro world took some steam out of bitcoin in November. Crypto investors may have shifted capital away from trad-fi, but trad-fi liquidity flows will remain critical in the months ahead. A stronger USD and flatter yield curve tell a cautionary tail as we edge deeper into the bitcoin bull-market. TLDR: Bitcoin fundamentals remain … More SM Market Review (Nov 2021): Macro headwinds build
I am often accused on being a bitcoin evangelist with nothing negative to say about bitcoin. Well, here is a risk that most people do not think about… Being co-opted by Wall St. Bitcoin’s potential is immense – an independent global reserve asset, the foundation of a more ethical financial system, uncorrupted by centralized financial … More SM (ed.17): Co-opted by Wall Street – Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk?
The political and economic sun has been rising in the East over the past century with China playing an increasingly important role in global geopolitics. Despite this trend, I have long been sceptical of China’s centralised and autocratic governance structure. 2021 could be a monumental year, exposing the frailties of excessive control. If bitcoin proves … More SM (ed. 16): The geopolitical event of the decade
We experienced a major 40% rally in bitcoin in October, driven by valuation, but triggered by SEC ETF approval. Valuation is less attractive than a month ago, but still very constructive heading into November so large price increases are the base case. However an increasing number of leveraged speculative implies the market will likely get … More SM Market Review (Oct 2021): Leveraged speculators creep in after strong rally