Traditional investors are confounded by the yields available in crypto. We earn next to nothing on traditional dollars but earn 5%+ on crypto dollars. I can imagine traditional investors look in from the outside and think “this is too good to be true!”, “Those bright shiny lights in the distance are going to blow up … More SM (ed. 14) Crypto yields are sucking in trad-fi
Stablecoins are an important and revealing innovation. With deep liquidity, lightning-fast settlement, and dramatic user growth these crypto USDs pose important questions for regulators and traditional financial markets. TLDR: Stablecoins present both challenges and opportunities to regulators, the financial system, and investors. The unfolding regulation of these instruments provides insights for the clash between centralized … More SM (ed. 13): Stablecoins - bitcoin’s Pandora’s box
No matter if you are bullish or bearish, if you are a value manager or growth, if you focus on fundamentals or quantitative signals, price is still the most important piece of financial market information. Price is where the rubber hits the road. Technical analysis is the study of price signals. Many investors it as … More Technical Analysis using multiple timeframes - Brian Shannon
Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto ecosystem experienced a hair-raising correction in the past week but I expect the bull-market to continue deeper into 2021. The market structure might be changing slightly as institutions play an important role so we have to wise up to the risks they introduce. But we cannot be fearful … More Bitcoin update: The bull-market is not over
From the outside digital assets may look like a volcano of hair-raising volatility chaotically bursting from the earth’s surface. But below that surface there are various sources of digital asset returns. In this article I define those sources and provide the models to assess the opportunity set. TLDR: Bitcoin remains the key source of digital … More Digital Asset Return Sources
Gold has been under pressure since hitting All Time Highs (ATH) at $2063/oz. in August 2020. Some view the pull-back as a moment to question the investment outlook for the yellow metal. Many bitcoiners are jumping on the proverbial grave. In this piece I address those questions, compare the current pull-back to historical bull-markets, discuss … More Gold Update: Shaking-out weak hands during multi-year bull-market
In the 2021 outlook, we said that the year ahead “will be a wilder ride than 2020…” Well, it has not disappointed thus far! The market is clearly speculative in nature, but investors need to get comfortable with the speculative nature of global financial markets. In this note, we update a few indicators and touch … More Bitcoin Bulletin: healthy trading despite speculative phase
2020 has been an unbelievable year. Apart from cementing the importance of relationships and community, bitcoin is the most positive component of a challenging year. 300%+ investment returns are spectacular, but bitcoin is far more important than price appreciation. In this note, I touch on numerous positive aspects of bitcoin, including protecting value in the … More 2021 bitcoin outlook: Hold onto your hats!
I’ve followed Jawad on twitter for years but engaged with his material infrequently until 2020. What can I say, there’s a lot of content on twitter and my attention was drawn elsewhere in the past… Through 2020 I’ve been acutely drawn to this work and I loved reading Stray Reflections. It’s not really a personal … More Stray Reflections by Jawad Mian
Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language - Adoption cycles will persist post 2021
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