A short book review from an investing classic. I enjoyed the turn of the century historical context, the booms and busts of the time and the different character of the investment management industry. For example, when Livermore was on holiday in Palm Beach Florida, he had to go into the physical trading houses to see … More Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre
A couple of notes from one of Jack Schwagers well known books. Market Wizards contains interviews with world’s best traders. I find it useful to remind myself of these core principles. It probably a useful discipline to return to these kinds of notes periodically to ensure that the good habits of being ingrained and the … More Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
Wow, what a month! We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system. As people try to make heads or tails of the destruction in the Ukraine potentially seismic shifts are underway financially. The … More SM (Ed.20) Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech
There are a lot of conflicting signals in the markets at the start of February 2022. The central banking monetary experiment is a long-term catalyst for bitcoin, but the Fed is reversing the trajectory temporarily this year. Macro conditions are responding (before the Fed has done much) which reveals both systemic fragility and a seasonal … More SM Market Review (Jan 2022): Institutional demand at lower prices in choppy conditions
We experienced a major 40% rally in bitcoin in October, driven by valuation, but triggered by SEC ETF approval. Valuation is less attractive than a month ago, but still very constructive heading into November so large price increases are the base case. However an increasing number of leveraged speculative implies the market will likely get … More SM Market Review (Oct 2021): Leveraged speculators creep in after strong rally
Headline crypto markets were flat over the past month, which took me somewhat by surprise so in this months market comment I conduct a brief reflection. TLDR: Derivative markets, Evergrande fears and some regulatory fears put crypto on the back-burner. While I am reflective, I am unconcerned. Fundamentals are strong, bitcoin is deeply undervalued and … More SM Market Review (Sept 2021) Reflection, support and maintenance of fundamental value
Traditional investors are confounded by the yields available in crypto. We earn next to nothing on traditional dollars but earn 5%+ on crypto dollars. I can imagine traditional investors look in from the outside and think “this is too good to be true!”, “Those bright shiny lights in the distance are going to blow up … More SM (ed. 14) Crypto yields are sucking in trad-fi
Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto ecosystem experienced a hair-raising correction in the past week but I expect the bull-market to continue deeper into 2021. The market structure might be changing slightly as institutions play an important role so we have to wise up to the risks they introduce. But we cannot be fearful … More Bitcoin update: The bull-market is not over
2020 has been an unbelievable year. Apart from cementing the importance of relationships and community, bitcoin is the most positive component of a challenging year. 300%+ investment returns are spectacular, but bitcoin is far more important than price appreciation. In this note, I touch on numerous positive aspects of bitcoin, including protecting value in the … More 2021 bitcoin outlook: Hold onto your hats!
Really enjoyed this Grant Williams podcast with Chris Cole. In fact, all Grant’s interviews in this series are worth listening to (more than once). There’s a lot of info I didn’t fully understand in this interview. Options and derivatives aren’t my strong point, but the interaction between these variables, volatility, monetary policy, macro and market … More Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change
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