A short book review from an investing classic. I enjoyed the turn of the century historical context, the booms and busts of the time and the different character of the investment management industry. For example, when Livermore was on holiday in Palm Beach Florida, he had to go into the physical trading houses to see … More Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre
Wow, what a month! We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system. As people try to make heads or tails of the destruction in the Ukraine potentially seismic shifts are underway financially. The … More SM (Ed.20) Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech
There is immense value in the broader crypto ecosystem of decentralised financial technologies but the bright shiny lights of the fastest appreciating token also pose a risk. Desire to beat the market can distract us. Bitcoin remains the most important asset in the ecosystem because of its resilience to external attack. Bitcoin is a reserve … More SM (ed. 15) Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto
Gold has been under pressure since hitting All Time Highs (ATH) at $2063/oz. in August 2020. Some view the pull-back as a moment to question the investment outlook for the yellow metal. Many bitcoiners are jumping on the proverbial grave. In this piece I address those questions, compare the current pull-back to historical bull-markets, discuss … More Gold Update: Shaking-out weak hands during multi-year bull-market
2020 Sound Money Recap In 2020 we established that “sound money is the challenge and opportunity of our lifetime.” Central banks have pursued aggressively loose monetary policies since the 1970s, trying to solve every problem, social, economic, political or financial, with lower interest rates and debt. They’ve ignored the consequences like deteriorating economic growth, falling … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 6) Invest capital into a sound future
2020 has been an unbelievable year. Apart from cementing the importance of relationships and community, bitcoin is the most positive component of a challenging year. 300%+ investment returns are spectacular, but bitcoin is far more important than price appreciation. In this note, I touch on numerous positive aspects of bitcoin, including protecting value in the … More 2021 bitcoin outlook: Hold onto your hats!
Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021
“Do you believe bitcoin?” “Do you believe in gold?” This line of questioning makes it sound like there is something mystical or religious about these store of value assets. Yes, people talk about gold and bitcoin with religious fervor, but gold is precious for a reason and the same logic is applicable to bitcoin. The … More Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects
First point of business – I’d like to invite you to a digital bitcoin webinar on Wednesday 9 December (1700 GMT, 1900 South Africa (GMT+2), 1100 Pacific Standard Time. This is for bitcoin investors. It is less suitable beginners who don’t have any holdings. Goals: Prepare for the bitcoin bull market; understand past cycles, strategize … More Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase
TLDR: The foundations of social trust are being tested. Our unsound monetary system with its negative consequences is a driver of this trust deficit. Communities that adopt sound money assets take a proactive step towards trustworthy relationships and away from the insidious consequences of unsound money. Youtube summary video: Trust – there’s simply not enough … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed.4) Where can we place our trust?