There is immense value in the broader crypto ecosystem of decentralised financial technologies but the bright shiny lights of the fastest appreciating token also pose a risk. Desire to beat the market can distract us. Bitcoin remains the most important asset in the ecosystem because of its resilience to external attack. Bitcoin is a reserve … More SM (ed. 15) Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto
In the past we used to write more detailed and opinionated pieces on market conditions. We are veering away from that to a short and succinct monthly market comment. We’ll keep opinions more thematic in nature and release those separately. What has happened in the month of August? After reaching a low of $29,800 in … More SM Market Review (Aug 2021) 25% undervalued, substantial upside price risks
Traditional investors are confounded by the yields available in crypto. We earn next to nothing on traditional dollars but earn 5%+ on crypto dollars. I can imagine traditional investors look in from the outside and think “this is too good to be true!”, “Those bright shiny lights in the distance are going to blow up … More SM (ed. 14) Crypto yields are sucking in trad-fi
Stablecoins are an important and revealing innovation. With deep liquidity, lightning-fast settlement, and dramatic user growth these crypto USDs pose important questions for regulators and traditional financial markets. TLDR: Stablecoins present both challenges and opportunities to regulators, the financial system, and investors. The unfolding regulation of these instruments provides insights for the clash between centralized … More SM (ed. 13): Stablecoins - bitcoin’s Pandora’s box
From the outside digital assets may look like a volcano of hair-raising volatility chaotically bursting from the earth’s surface. But below that surface there are various sources of digital asset returns. In this article I define those sources and provide the models to assess the opportunity set. TLDR: Bitcoin remains the key source of digital … More Digital Asset Return Sources
In the 2021 outlook, we said that the year ahead “will be a wilder ride than 2020…” Well, it has not disappointed thus far! The market is clearly speculative in nature, but investors need to get comfortable with the speculative nature of global financial markets. In this note, we update a few indicators and touch … More Bitcoin Bulletin: healthy trading despite speculative phase
Whilst bitcoin demand is variable, bitcoin supply is perfectly known and pre-determined. There will only be 21 million. The architectural design is very unlikely to change. It’s incredible how known supply meets variable demand and results in adoption waves, which centre around the halving*. In this article I detail these waves and explain the psychological … More Adoption Waves: FOMO remains Bitcoin’s #1 Marketing Strategy
Bitcoin’s detractors often refer to it as a speculative asset. This is partially true - an investment in bitcoin involves a speculation on an inherently uncertain future. But the connotation implied by ‘speculation’ is often unhelpful because it associates bitcoin with fly-by-nights who are merely trying to make a quick buck. In this article I … More Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world
Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language - Adoption cycles will persist post 2021
In part 1 I described the major differences between bitcoin and Ethereum and in part 2 I spoken about the protocol uncertainty in ethereum’s future vs. bitcoin’s ossifying protocol. In part 3 I return to my investment thesis, which is the reason I remain predominantly bitcoin focused. Primary investment thesis (5-10 years) Store of Value … More BTC vs. ETH PART 3: Investment Thesis
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